A late position in the first game of a three-point match. The score is still zero-zero. Black considers the first cube of the match.

Black started this game with monster doubles from favorable dice on the third roll, so Black has been watching and nursing a “too good to cube” situation for many rolls now. Suddenly it seems the gammon balloon descends from above and drifts into a simple cash for the match point. First Blood, some call it.

Chances are Black won’t be gammoned here, but White might be. Good dice for Black can easily win a running bearoff, and possibly a gammon. At this score, a cubed gammon loss is doomsday for White.

Sure, Black could leave a blot and White could hit it with a direct. But that is a parlay, and one rule for endgame parlays is: Count the shots on both sides. Black tidies up the blots except for seventeen rolls, which occasionally leave twins. A direct shot for White from close range is eleven or so rolls, a dozen among friends. That is a combo parlay with probability of about 4/9 times 1/3 or about 15% of the games. By coincidence, it is about the same fraction of games as Black wins a gammon.

To avoid paranoia, please note right now that Black will sometimes leave a later blot. Forewarned is forearmed. Don’t moan when it happens.

Conclusion: A few running wins plus those parlay victories are not quite enough for White to take the cube at this score. After White drops the cube, White still has a two-fifths chance of winning the match.

D/P

A first blood cube.