Cash game with Jacoby rule. Black pauses to consider a first cube.

Cube decision over-the-board:

White has a slight racing lead. Both the deep Black and White anchors are becoming trapped in a classic prime versus prime scenario. White has a gapped 4-prime with its illogical 16pt-22pt structure, which must break the 16pt sometime for future development. Black’s 4-prime is solid and pristine, and easily extended from behind or solidly from ahead if the 8pt checkers become involved. Further, Black has a spare on the midpoint that provides timing advantage.

Of course, the chief difference between the White and Black primes is the white blot on her barpoint. Any black six (sixteen shots) punctures the white prime, sending a third white checker to the bar behind the black prime and perhaps causing the white checker to dance.

Amusingly, Black’s very best roll is 44s which does not even hit, but makes the golden anchor and naturally advances the black 4-prime to the home 4pt.

In a cash game with Jacoby rule Black has just enough advantages to offer a first Double.

White is solid when her blot is missed, which occurs in five-of-every-nine black rolls, a majority. When hit, White has some chances to make a better anchor, thereby altering the timing balance. White thus has a playable game either way.

Therefore, White has an easy Take.

After reflective study:

For market losers and volatility, use Dice Distribution in XG.

Ballpark total wins is B=67% vs W=33%

The volatility of 0.0832 is lowish.

Notice the excess of gammon wins (B=20% vs W=10%) do not directly predict this low volatility. Gammons and volatility are related but not always linked.

Black has 343 market losers — the he said then the she said — during the upcoming Black roll then White roll exchange. ML=26.5%=343/1296, a goodly number.

The lion’s share of market losing sequences begin with either Black 44s making points or with 66s, 33s, direct 6s and combo 6s all hitting, followed by White dances or White awkward dice rolls.

After lengthy rollouts of 10368 cases over 3 hours CPU, the various double options lead to a reference first cube, statistics below:

Future refinement of Black’s over-the-board game occurs when the categories of the blocking dice tosses or the hitting sixes are listed then weighed before Black offers the cube.

Although having market losing exchanges is wonderful for Black, doubling into them is where the Black profit comes from.