Consider the play of Black’s roll 62s late in a backgame.

Thoughts over the board.

The first question is: Should Black break a backgame anchor now? If not, only deuces are embarrassing for White. But if Black breaks the 23pt anchor, deuces for White are still as dangerous but threes are bad too — double direct shots in either case. If Black instead breaks the 24pt anchor, deuces for White are again as dangerous (the direct shots) but fours are NOT awkward — fours still bearoff a white checker. Overall, breaking anchor is not much of an improvement, even before any downside is assessed. Don’t break yet.

Fine. So the checkers in the outfield are the candidate moves. Which way? It is usually better in a hurry-up offence to slot the needed point rather than hope to build it with spares. Time is of the essence here. Black will soon be forced to break anchor.

Play 15/9 8/6.

** == ** == ** Peeking …

pentimento
short rollouts
Tabulate the milli-point (mp) equity mistakes against gammon losses (gl)

23/15 54mp 0.528gl
23/17 8/6 48mp 0.530gl
23/17 15/13 44mp 0.525gl
15/7 33mp 0.505gl
15/9 8/6 0mp 0.496gl

Yes, half of Black’s game losses are gammons. Crossovers matter when saving some of the gammons. Also, when Black hits a white blot but loses anyway, making the new home point may convert gammons into single game losses — thus saving gammons.
Play 15/9 8/6