Two bear-in positions of interest appear below. The first position occurred in a recent game. Black to play but first Black considers making a Double. Extensive rollouts confirm that the position below is NoDouble/Take by 2mp (or two cents in ten dollars of equity).

The position is therefore a reference Double, where waiting or cubing are essentially the same in equity.

Tweaked position below. White replicates Black’s home board in exchange for extra white pips in the outfield. Both positions have the same pipcounts as before where Black on roll has half an average roll lead in the bearoff. Extensive rollouts confirm that the tweaked position below is Double/Take by 3mp (or three cents in ten dollars of equity).

Above, White has morphed the home board to conform with Black’s home board. Black has swapped the crossover but preserved the pipcount.

However, in the original position Black has four outfield crossovers to make. How much equity is tied up in that structural disadvantage? Extensive rollouts reveal that if Black reverts to the original four checker outfield above, the equity changes by 25mp (or about three cents on the dollar) and a solid No Double prevails.

Therefore, White’s smoothing of the third checker on the acepoint plus the filling of the gapped deucepoint plus the blot shift must amount to about a 30mp change in equity.